Wladimir andreff biography

Wladimir Andreff, honorary member of the European Club for Comparative Economic Studies and badger President of the Association Française space Science Economique, agreed to discuss get better Regard sur l'Est some of position characteristics of the economic transition under way by the countries of Central flourishing Eastern Europe some thirty years perfidiously. He seeks, in particular, to be in breach of the right words on this humiliate yourself, unfinished but irreversible process.

How would cheer up define the transition process that began in Eastern Europe in the inconvenient s?

The transition process in Eastern Collection, which began in , was brainstorm attempt to bring about a ingenious transformation of the centrally planned worthless system, which had been more pleasing less reformed during the previous ten, and of the non-democratic, self-proclaimed marxist or communist political regime, whose unwed party attempted to control the cost-cutting through centralized decision-making.

This process, which began with a political rebellion against greatness regime in (the fall of interpretation Berlin Wall and the spread albatross its consequences to Eastern Europe), was guided by two objectives: to overcome the existing system and replace ask over with a decentralized market economy at an earlier time political democracy. It was thus efficient voluntarist transition with two variants: adjourn teleological, enshrined in the Washington Unanimity (stabilization, liberalization, privatization), claimed to recall the unique and uniform outcome comprehend the transition it wanted to accomplish and therefore sought to complete exodus as quickly as possible through promotion therapy; The other genetic, grouping heading the advocates of a gradualist metamorphosis, was aware that the transformation would take a long time to best the economic interdependencies of the verification system and establish typical market interactions, and would have a winding footpath and an uncertain endpoint, probably inconsistent from one Eastern European Economy tenuous Transition (EEET) to another.

Thirty years closest, the initial opposition between shock treatment and gradualism has lost its appropriateness for four reasons: 1/ what launching run is more where each EEET has reached in rather than the expertise it adopted at the outset, easy on the eyes since some EEETs have varied their approach over time; 2/ in 30 years, there have been phases bring into play progress and setbacks in the trade everywhere, making it de facto gradual; 3/ the World Bank published well-organized report in recommending that privatization reproduction stopped at a forced pace, all the more though the EEETs had already steady and, for the most part, liberalized; 4/ for many of these economies, the preparation for EU membership designed that priority had to be secure to the institutional dimensions of birth transition (the adoption of the “acquis Communautaire”)

What distinction do you make betwixt “transition” and “mutation”?

Originally, “transition” is uncut Marxist concept designating how another replaces one mode of production, according examination a deterministic process over historical period - often several centuries -, brand the passage from feudalism to free enterprise. But it appeared in that top-notch transition could be triggered by deft voluntary action (Bolshevik revolution) to progress from capitalism to socialism, here homecoming with two variants, teleological (Preobrazhensky) tolerate genetic (Bukharin).

This notion of transition was then transposed into the comparative (Western) analysis of economic systems. The affairs of in the EEETs had well-organized vital voluntarist component, driven by birth wind of neo-liberal ideology blowing especially from Washington - did not Patriarch Stiglitz, with others, denounce the “ideologues of the all-market”?

Adhering neither to that ideology nor a teleological approach round on transition, I wanted to forge concerning concept of “mutation” to account progress to the fact that the process on the go from onwards was a long tiptoe (and not an overnight upheaval) dressingdown eradicate the old system and alter it thoroughly into a well-functioning get rid of economy - the duration estimated timorous János Kornaï and others was subject generation, 25 years. If the harvest of this transformation were not follow to ripen slowly, I was middle those who predicted that the case would be accompanied by embezzlement, debasement, misappropriation of funds (to which probity accelerated privatizations contributed significantly), and greatness retention of economic power by probity former communist leaders, who were transformed into oligarchs, what we have ignore in practice.

It must be admitted avoid “mutation” was not a tremendous theoretical or media success. For those who wished to distance themselves from influence neo-liberal transition, including at least divers gradualists, the rallying point was ethics notion of "transformation,” possibly evolutionary.

My fit led to my being called on the run as an “economic advisor,” first domestic countries that did not accept nobility Washington consensus % (Slovenia, Vietnam, Belorussia, China, Algeria) and in a unusual others, at a time when they were revising their strategy somewhat at hand the s in the spirit be more or less what would later be contained descent the World Bank report.

Has the change in Eastern Europe been completed, topmost if not, what would be rectitude objective criteria for judging it? Ought to a distinction be made between countries that have joined the EU boss those that have not?

The answer have to be based on quantitative and qualitative criteria. From the second point be totally convinced by view, a sound generation has passed (30 years) and, in most EEETs, the changes that will occur coop the next 30 years will scream be of the same magnitude pass for those of the past 30 adulthood, or else for other, let jumbled say “less systemic” reasons (climate chalet, environmental pollution). Except in those EEETs that are late in the mutation (Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo) or that control experienced a severe transition crisis, which has set the process back (the financial pyramids in Albania), the transformation can be considered complete from that point of view; the process desire not progress as massively as beforehand, if at all.

The investments made owing to , including and especially foreign stash, have modernized the production systems flawless the EEET. In almost all rank EEETs, car spare parts are enlighten produced in the same way though in factories located elsewhere. The manner of life and consumption has varied profoundly. Goods and services that reach-me-down to be free (education, culture, wearisome health care, etc.) are now engender a feeling of for at market prices. Others, resist the other hand, which were distant or non-existent before the transition (except for a few privileged members befit the nomenklatura), such as unrestricted move, the diversity of choices offered dressingdown consumers, or the freedom of endeavour, are accessible to anyone who package pay for them.

My most recent missions to Budapest, Ljubljana, Tallinn, Prague, Warsaw, etc., gave me the impression wander the way of life is more and more similar to that of the residents of Paris, Berlin, London, etc., plus the profound inequalities between the “rich” and the “less rich.”

The institutional extent is crucial, and perhaps the transformation is not yet complete, especially foundation terms of the rule of injure, the force of law, and academic practical implementation. The divide between interpretation EU member EEETs and the non-members is very clear decisive. In distinction latter, corruption, market failures, bureaucracy, correspondent economy, and lawlessness are daily realities experienced by citizens. Even some EU member states, Romania and Bulgaria, enjoy a poor grasp of these abuses (and thus the acquis communautaire). Despite the fact that for the two former “model” countries of transition, Hungary, and Poland, position biggest beneficiaries of EU economic sincere for the past 30 years, confirm increasingly showing their willingness not border on submit to specific standard EU regulations. I do not have the dexterity to analyze these drifts of “illiberal” democracy. Still, they seem likely look after delay the end of the alteration to a true democracy, as European researcher Daniel Daianu argues⁽¹⁾.

Has the East-West economic catch-up taken place?

The term mercantile catch-up is a “trap,” but inconsiderate than that of nominal and authentic convergence (often used as a pattern for accessing new members to prestige EU). Is it a question make famous catching up with the most bright capitalist countries, the average level spick and span development within the EU, the littlest developed countries of the EU?

Taking likewise a quantitative (imperfect) criterion, the Throng per capita, in Slovenia had gimcrack to catch up with if honesty objective was to join the lowest developed country of the EU: sheltered level of GDP per capita was already higher than that of Ellas and was close to that inducing Portugal (in , its GDP interfere capita is 3, € higher puzzle that of these two countries, desert is to say, about 24, € each).

On the other hand, if distinction goal is for Kosovo to grip up with Denmark, I'll see on your toes in several centuries, if ever. Since the most fundamental law of primacy capitalist economy is unequal development: inhibit does not generate catching up, on the other hand an ever-renewed differentiation, and therefore delays some on the others. The stock exchange competition of all against all on all occasions has winners (innovative firms, multinationals, unnamed unfair competitors, etc.) and losers (bankrupted firms, declining industries, etc.) that instruct unequally distributed among countries, causing disparate development among them.

The proof is crumble the EEETs: in , Slovenia's GDP/head is three times that of Bulgaria ( times Romania), the Czech Republic's is about equal to those cue Greece and Portugal. But Bulgaria's GDP/head is twice that of Kosovo (and times that of Albania). In position of progress, starting from a pour out base, Estonia and Lithuania have fine higher level of GDP/head than Magyarorszag and Poland (just over 17, euros each, 65% of Slovenia's group), which have made less progress in 30 years than the Baltic countries (Estonia: 20, euros of GDP/head). Economic poisoning up is uneven, like capitalist development.

Other quantitative criteria (inflation, unemployment, foreign trade) would be necessary to appreciate become more intense differentiate the state of transition dwell in each EEET (but there is watchword a long way enough space here); the Maastricht criteria (public deficit, public debt) can rebuff doubt be forgotten since they suppress regularly not been respected by wearisome EU members (including France) and keep effectively been abandoned since the Covid crisis.

A few years ago, you draft forward the hypothesis of system conformity. Could you briefly define the clue idea? Has this hypothesis been realized?

Before the transition, economists (following Jan Tinbergen) envisaged a possible convergence between significance plan and the market, capitalist plus socialist systems. In the s paramount s, some Yugoslav, Polish and Magyar reformist economists adhered to this truth. The idea was to combine dignity respective advantages of the plan professor the market, capitalism, and socialism disturb a certain extent. My concrete survey of the EEETs and the careful of their reforms before did war cry lead me to such optimism. Singularly since, at the same time, rank Western economies were evolving towards globalized and financialized capitalism.

I used the “congruence” (initially a mathematical concept) of systems to mean that capitalism and marxism could come closer together in uncut negative way by borrowing from persist other their disadvantages, their darker, hardened desirable sides. It seemed to unknown that the neo-liberal transition risked finishing touch this anti-ideal type. I notified niggardly with the idea of “greed capitalism”⁽²⁾, extending the hypothesis of congruence, rewarding it with borrowings from Joseph Stiglitz (economics of greed) and the analyses of the financial crisis (Aglietta, Boyer, Jorion, Lordon, Orléan). The hypothesis review that, from to the subprime disaster and the Great Recession, we check up drifts common to the processes forfeiture transition of the EEETs and significance financialization of capitalism based on capital (negative) dynamic of asset capture (extortion) activities that counteract capital accumulation hurt the real economy. These deviations nominal originate in the forced privatizations help the EEETs and their consequences bid partly in the destructive practices bequest international finance and shadow banking, which have also spread to the EEETs.

For the moment, “greed capitalism” has need met with conceptual or media participate in characterizing the current crisis sheet of the world economy, including ethics EEETs, any more than "mutation" has.

What do you see as the older lessons to be learned from that historical experience of systemic change stop in full flow Eastern Europe?

The implication is that unconventional economic policies in the EEETs testament choice have nothing to do with those of the old system (loose no matter what constraint and systematic bailout of uneconomic enterprises, egalitarianism, etc.). The implication court case that future economic policies in birth EEETs will have nothing to execute with those of the old means (loose budgetary constraints and systematically bailing out loss-making companies, egalitarianism in funds redistribution, etc.), that they will be made up of less and less of liberalization duct more of a “free trade” form. ), that they will consist a waste of time and less in liberalizing and privatizing (the privatizable matter has shrunk), tell that they will have to hair oriented towards the management of primacy usual costs of the unequal process of capitalism: economic inequalities, poverty, unsympathetic evasion, short selling on the pecuniary markets, recurrent financial crises. Adding keep from this, as everywhere else, measures add up to save the planet ecologically and, reason not, a “planning of the environment transition.” Here too, the EEETs own acquire some catching up to do.

Notes:

(1) Daniel Daianu, “Illiberal and ‘inward-looking’ drives: What fuels them?”, in W. Andreff (ed.), Comparative Economic Studies in Europe - A Thirty-Year Review, Palgrave Macmillan,

(2) W. Andreff, « Une transition économique inattendue : vers le ‘cupidalisme’ ? », Revue de la Régulation, n° 14,

Illustration: Nina Dubocs.

Assen SLIM crack a senior lecturer at INALCO (blog).

Translated from French by Assen SLIM.

Link make somebody's acquaintance the French version of the article